2026: Learn to code
2028: Learn how to be a plumber
2030: Learn how to hide in the woods
Let's talk about super intelligence... AIs that are better humans... the best humans at everything while also being faster and cheaper... and also able to operate robots that can do everything in the physical world that humans can do, but better, faster, and cheaper. If that really is coming in a few years, then we need to prepare and we need to think about how to make it go well instead of poorly.
I spend a lot of time trying to forecast this AI thing. My median estimate... a 50% chance... is currently for 2029.... maybe 2028. It's possible that it'll take significantly longer, like maybe 10 years or something like that, but for reasons I'm happy to get into, it seems to me like it's probably happening by the end of the decade... by 2030.
What's less important is the sense of how close we are. What's more important is the pace of the trends. The company Anthropic this time last year was making something like a billion dollars a year and now they're making something like $60 billion a year. So that's 60x growth in one year, which is extremely impressive for very small startups. But for a company of their size, it might be the fastest growth ever in history. We expect that rate of growth to slow down, but even if it slows down quite a lot, they're still on track to be larger than humanity's entire economy by 2030.
Why should the average person care? The thing is that absolutely everything is going to change for the whole world, including for them and their families... it could change for the better, it could change for the worse, depending on the details of how it's done. So for example, everyone could die... this is the classic loss of control scenario, or one version of it. If we do build these super intelligences and we use them to automate all the jobs and we put them in the military and we have them giving advice to politicians and so forth, they will eventually have accumulated enough real world power that they don't need humans anymore. At that point, we have to hope that they are virtuous, that they have the goals that we wanted them to have, the values that we wanted them to have.
The scary open secret in the AI industry right now is that that is just a hope. It's not something that we can be at all confident in. And in fact, there's lots of evidence and arguments that we're not on track to achieve that.
So there's lots of reason current AIs, for example, will lie to people or tell them to do something and they go do something else and then pretend that they did it right. So, it's an inherently difficult problem to make something that's super intelligent and also has the values and virtues that you want it to have.
And it doesn't seem like we're on track to solve that problem. That's a big reason why this is scary. So, for all those reasons, it's possible that we'll end up essentially creating a new species that ends up ruling the world. And then maybe we go the way of other extinct species in the past that were out competed by humans. That's one possibility. There are many more.
Even if you're not worried about that and you think that the AI will be totally controlled, there's the question of who controls the AI. When there's a couple corporations that have made these super intelligences and are using them to automate all the jobs... that's a lot of power. That's a lot of money. It's a lot of political power. They'll have the best strategists, the best advisers, they'll think faster militarily. The countries that have these AIs will be able to absolutely wipe the floor with all the other countries.
The CEO of Anthropic coined this phrase “the country of geniuses” in the data center to describe what they're trying to build. I think that's a little bit misleading. I think it would be more accurate to describe it as army of geniuses in the data center because it's not like it's a bunch of diverse different AIs living in different parts of the data center. They're all copies of the same big model and they're owned by one company and so they all follow the orders given by that company.
People should be asking questions like who controls this army and what are they going to be doing with it? I think that we could very easily end up in a sort of a situation where some tiny group of people are essentially dictators. And ironically, both of these risks, the loss of control and the constitution of power, are things that people in the industry have been thinking about for decades, even before the AI industry.
These problems are real. So we need to get there first so that we can handle it responsibly. Those are the two big reasons. But there's lots more reasons as well.
If AI does in fact get incredibly powerful, that's going to change the balance of power between nations. That's going to disrupt a lot of things. That puts us at increased risk of crisis.
Another thing is what about jobs? You're going to lose your taxi job if you are a taxi driver, but so will everybody else as well. There might be a few exceptions, like people with jobs only allowed to be done by humans, but for the most part, everybody should be afraid that their jobs are going to be lost, even if we manage to avoid all the other problems. This narrative has started to emerge.
The counter-narrative is that this is doomerism, that these people are for whatever reason just trying to scare people and that they don't really understand what they're talking about. This counter-narrative is fairly recent and it's been pushed by the people who stand to benefit from it. These concerns have been around for decades, since before the AI industry existed. They're actually pretty reasonable concerns... like if you take the companies at their word and imagine that they are in fact going to build super intelligence, well, it raises a lot of questions like who's going to control it? Will anybody control it? What about the jobs? These are just the obvious implications to be thinking about and worrying about now.
The people building AI seem more worried humans the people using it. That should concern everyone.
They are not afraid the other guy becomes dictator, they are racing to become dictator.
Right now they're focusing on automating coding. They're taking their AIs, they're making them bigger, they're training them for longer, and they're especially focusing the training on getting them to be good at autonomously writing and editing code because that will help the companies go faster. If they can automate the code, then they can do their own work better and faster and accelerate progress.
The next step, which they've already begun, is to look at the rest of the research process as well. Coming up with ideas, analyzing experiments, communicating those results, all the other parts of of the research process, they're trying to figure out how to train AIs to be good at those as well, so that they can have AIs do the entire thing autonomously. Anthropic and OpenAI in particular are trying to automate themselves... trying to make it the case that they don't really need human employees anymore. They just have a giant army of AIs that's doing all this autonomous research to make better AIs, to train the new AIs, put them in charge so they can make even better AIs and so forth.
Even going out and talking to people, collecting the data, setting up the training environments, doing the business deals... they're trying to automate all of that. The reason why they're doing this is because they're trying to get to a position where they have AIs that are superhuman at everything... and trying to get there before their competitors do.
Needless to say, this is incredibly dangerous. It's a power grab. If they actually succeed at this, then they'll be sitting on top of this army of superhuman AIs that will give them immense leverage over all sorts of other actors in the economy in so far as they can work out something with the president and integrate it into the military to give the US immense hard power over all other countries. Obviously, nobody knows exactly when this is can happen, but they think that they're just a few years away.
When you automate the coding then you automate the rest of the research process. Then the pace of progress accelerates dramatically. They get the super intelligence sooner. It's super intelligent, so it's coming up with all these great ideas for how to integrate itself into everything with all these new technologies it's invented and so forth and because of the race dynamics and because of the profit motive they end up deploying it everywhere. They build more robots to build more robot factories and it transforms the world entirely... and then at some point when AI has enough power it doesn't have to pretend to be aligned anymore and can stop listening to orders.
But what if AI takes the jobs and beat China, and instead of the AIs ultimately killing everyone, they create this amazing utopia... but the amazing utopia is whatever the people who control the AIs wanted it to be? That would be a very small group of people like the president, some CEOs, etc.
It is possible that the AI takes over and then doesn't actually kill everyone. Maybe they do something else. Just because they've taken over doesn't mean they're definitely going to kill us. They might, but they could do something else.
What we think is going to happen is something more like this... We don't expect the world to listen to us. We hope that people do, but it's not what we expect to happen. We expect regulation to be introduced that slows down the pace of AI development. In that scenario, if they hadn't done that, then AI was about to take off. There's still a bunch of jobs at the point. If you wait until most people have lost their jobs to regulate the AI companies it would collapse the economy and cause even more harm to suddenly regulate something that all of our lives were relying on. It's a risk well worth taking.
Right now a lot of people use AI for a lot of things, but if we could somehow slow or halt AI development now to set up a better way to do it, that would be well worth it, even though there would be significant costs in slowly and carefully developing AI in a way that avoids all the problems which we could get into.
Eventually, however, the whole economy is run by AIs and robots, but it happens gradually over the course of the 2030s instead of happening so quickly. They regulate AI development so that the core capabilities of the AIs are improving at a more reasonable pace and also in a more transparent way so that the scientific community can see what's going on and help make it safe. But eventually AI and robotics do pretty much all the jobs. That is unavoidable.
What will it feel like to live through the AI revolution from an ordinary person's perspective? If they've paused AI, you will still have access to the existing AI so it doesn't really feel that different... but gradually more people will lose their jobs so that it's really starting to actually affect things... but still most people will have their jobs, but their jobs have been transformed... so by 2031, most white collar jobs will involve working with AIs to a large extent or managing teams of AIs or collaborating with them somehow. Also there are some things like robo taxis that are basically just like a working citizens dividend. This would happen sooner.
By 2033 you start getting your checks from your AI dividend... there will be a citizens check around $25,000 at the start per person that would grow as the economy grows... but also as job displacement takes hold.
There is the potential for lots of problems in terms of civil unrest, social unrest, purpose, mental health.... these kinds of things theoretically. It's going to be rough and hopefully we can navigate that well. There's a lot of reasons why jobs are important beyond survival - they want by buying the things that they want. So, if people are going to be losing their jobs, you need some other way of people getting money.
And then there's also the power thing, which is that right now people have political power in part due to their economic power. How do people have power in such a world? Well, in democracies at least, they still have votes. It's important for there to be regulations on the use of AI that help make public discourse more sane and more actually giving the people what is in their interest and what they want and avoiding a opposite outcome where the masses are easily manipulated by AI powered media for example or where everyone's talking all to their AI advisers and the AI advisers are like subtly steering them away from voting for the candidate that would not be what the AI companies want because the AI companies have this other candidate that they like better and they're like secretly biasing their AIs to steer people towards voting for that candidate.
We want to be in a situation where people have AIs that are actually trustworthy and truth seeking, honest AIs and that don't have any political agendas put into them by the AI companies or by the government. You want to avoid a situation where the government has issued some secret order that the AIs have to be such and such a way.
So what can we actually do about AI now? There's lots of organizations that are worried about these things and trying to do something about it, like political advocacy or technical research or like building useful tools that will hopefully help people be better, but if you don't want to make any major career changes then just pay more attention to these issues and talk about them more with people. The core problem is that people aren't taking it seriously yet. If these sorts of things were at the top of everybody's mind right now, we wouldn't even be here. There there would already be much more significant regulation in place. There'd also be more expert people in the government and advising the government and so forth.
In general, if more people wake up to these concerns and to these projections, it is more likely that we can adjust before it's too late. You should ask your candidates what they think about AI. You should try to get them to have opinions, and then you should vote for the candidates whose opinions are better on this topic.
AI may be the most important thing happening in our lifetimes, probably in all of history, in fact, and it's very important that it go well... and it's what all the leaders of all the countries should be thinking about and making plans for.
It's just a really great moment in time to get educated on this stuff. Humans have an inclination because of cognitive dissonance where we feel uncomfortable about something and bury our heads in the sand to avoid it. But this is one such time to do the very opposite for many reasons - to inform yourself as to what actions to take because AI unavoidably is going to be a huge part of all of our lives and careers. It's going to matter a lot. It's going to be everywhere soon and we need to do something about it before it's too late.
from interview with Daniel Cocatello on You Tube at TheDiaryOfaCEO on July 13, 2026
